When the Background Matters: Using Scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models in Prospective Life Cycle Assessment

Prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) needs to deal with the large epistemological uncertainty about the future to support more robust future environmental impact assessments of technologies. This study proposes a novel approach that systematically changes the background processes in a prospective LCA based on scenarios of an integrated assessment model (IAM), the IMAGE model. Consistent worldwide scenarios from IMAGE are evaluated in the life cycle inventory using ecoinvent v3.3. To test the approach, only the electricity sector was changed in a prospective LCA of an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) and an electric vehicle (EV) using six baseline and mitigation climate scenarios until 2050. This case study shows that changes in the electricity background can be very important for the environmental impacts of EV. Also, the approach demonstrates that the relative environmental performance of EV and ICEV over time is more complex and multifaceted than previously assumed. Uncertainty due to future developments manifests in different impacts depending on the product (EV or ICEV), the impact category, and the scenario and year considered. More robust prospective LCAs can be achieved, particularly for emerging technologies, by expanding this approach to other economic sectors beyond electricity background changes and mobility applications as well as by including uncertainty and changes in foreground parameters. A more systematic and structured composition of future inventory databases driven by IAM scenarios helps to acknowledge epistemological uncertainty and to increase the temporal consistency of foreground and background systems in LCAs of emerging technologies.     

Rare species habitat suitability assessment and reliability evaluation of an expert-based model: A case study of the insectivorous plant Pinguicula crystallina Sibth. et Smith subsp. hirtiflora (Ten.) Strid (Lentibulariaceae)

The development of habitat suitability models requires a large amount of data which are rarely available. In this case, researchers need to get information on the ecological features of the studied species, based on the opinion of experts or on the literature, to construct a qualitative model. However, such models cannot be rigorously evaluated, as in most cases absence points are not available. In this paper, we assess the habitat suitability for a vulnerable insectivorous plant, Pinguicula crystallina Sibth. et Smith subsp. hirtiflora (Ten.) Strid (Lentibulariaceae) in the Campania region. Our aim was to develop an expert-based, presence-only model in support of possible conservation actions. Topographic and geological features of this species suggested by the literature were used in our model. Both the Boyce index and field surveys were chosen to evaluate the model's reliability. During field surveys, 31 absence sites and 1 new presence site were identified, and differences between sites with regard to water chemistry and quality were investigated, water being an element in the species habitat. Factors that affect reliability of the model, such as the lack of a large amount of information on the species and the limited spatial resolution of geographical information system data, are discussed.     

Discovery of isoquinolinone and naphthyridinone-based inhibitors of poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase-1 (PARP1) as anticancer agents: Structure activity relationship and preclinical characterization

The exploitation of GLU988 and LYS903 residues in PARP1 as targets to design isoquinolinone (I & II) and naphthyridinone (III) analogues is described. Compounds of structure I have good biochemical and cellular potency but suffered from inferior PK. Constraining the linear propylene linker of structure I into a cyclopentene ring (II) offered improved PK parameters, while maintaining potency for PARP1. Finally, to avoid potential issues that may arise from the presence of an anilinic moiety, the nitrogen substituent on the isoquinolinone ring was incorporated as part of the bicyclic ring. This afforded a naphthyridinone scaffold, as shown in structure III. Further optimization of naphthyridinone series led to identification of a novel and highly potent PARP1 inhibitor 34, which was further characterized as preclinical candidate molecule. Compound 34 is orally bioavailable and displayed favorable pharmacokinetic (PK) properties. Compound 34 demonstrated remarkable antitumor efficacy both as a single-agent as well as in combination with chemotherapeutic agents in the BRCA1 mutant MDA-MB-436 breast cancer xenograft model. Additionally, compound 34 also potentiated the effect of agents such as temozolomide in breast cancer, pancreatic cancer and Ewing’s sarcoma models.     

Seemingly Unrelated Generalized Linear Models

By using deviance standardized residuals, the seemingly unrelated regression estimation procedure is extended to generalized linear models, and fitted by an iterative procedure. The matrix of cross products of standardized residuals is asymptotically multivariate normal, and can be used for further multivariate analyses and for hypothesis testing.     

Mean difference in live-weight per incremental difference in body condition score estimated in multiple sheep breeds and crossbreds

Body condition score (BCS) is a subjective assessment of the proportion of body fat an animal possesses and is independent of frame size. There is a growing awareness of the importance of mature animal live-weight given its contribution to the overall costs of production of a sector. Because of the known relationship between BCS and live-weight, strategies to reduce live-weight could contribute to the favouring of animals with lesser body condition. The objective of the present study was to estimate the average difference in live-weight per incremental change in BCS, measured subjectively on a scale of 1 to 5. The data used consisted of 19 033 BCS and live-weight observations recorded on the same day from 7556 ewes on commercial and research flocks; the breeds represented included purebred Belclare (540 ewes), Charollais (1484 ewes), Suffolk (885 ewes), Texel (1695 ewes), Vendeen (140 ewes), as well as, crossbreds (2812 ewes). All associations were quantified using linear mixed models with the dependent variable of live-weight; ewe parity was included as a random effect. The independent variables were BCS, breed (n=6), stage of the inter-lambing interval (n=6; pregnancy, lambing, pre-weaning, at weaning, post-weaning and mating) and parity (1, 2, 3, 4 and 5+). In addition, two-way interactions were used to investigate whether the association between BCS and live-weight differed by parity, a period of the inter-lambing interval or breed. The association between BCS and live-weight differed by parity, by a period of the inter-lambing interval and by breed. Across all data, a one-unit difference in BCS was associated with 4.82 (SE=0.08) kg live-weight, but this differed by parity from 4.23 kg in parity 1 ewes to 5.82 kg in parity 5+ ewes. The correlation between BCS and live-weight across all data was 0.48 (0.47 when adjusted for nuisance factors in the statistical model), but this varied from 0.48 to 0.53 by parity, from 0.36 to 0.63 by stage of the inter-lambing interval and from 0.41 to 0.62 by breed. Results demonstrate that consideration should be taken of differences in BCS when comparing ewes on live-weight as differences in BCS contribute quite substantially to differences in live-weight; moreover, adjustments for differences in BCS should consider the population stratum, especially breed.     

Central Place Foraging in Nonpatchy Habitats

This paper deal with a model of optimal foraging in a habitat with arbitrary food distribution. It takes into account an arbitrary risk cost related to the distance to the animal's nest. Food acquisition and risk cost are accounted for in common units of fitness. The resulting problem is solved in the context of Calculus of Variations. The optimal duration of absence from the nest and the optimal spatial allocation of foraging time are obtained: the optimal strategy leads to separate the habitat into a region to exploit and a region to ignore. The definition of these two distinct regions depends on the relative importance of risk and food availability. With realistic risk costs, the resulting strategy indicates a highly selective behaviour when far from the nest, as observed in field studies. The model is also extended to take account of the need of returning to the nest to guard it or to feed the young.     

Unravelling the coordination between leaf and stem economics spectra through local and global scale approaches

The existence of a coordination between leaf and stem economic spectra in woody species has been postulated repeatedly in the literature, with contrasting results. Here, we postulated that this coordination is conditioned by climate factors, being stronger in stressful environments. To test this hypothesis we explored the coordination between leaf and stem economic spectra in a seasonally dry forest in central Argentina and at the global scale, we analysed if the outcome of their coordination varies along a climatic gradient. At the local scale, we characterized leaf and stem economic spectra in 37 woody species by measuring six leaf and stem functional traits related to resource acquisition and use, and two functional traits used as proxies of water transport and use capacities. At the global scale, a meta‐regression was performed to analyse if the outcome of the coordination among leaf and stem traits varies along gradients of the mean precipitation of the driest quarter and of the minimum temperature of the coldest month. At the local scale, we observed a high integration among the measured leaf and stem traits, and this coordination seemed to be linked to hydraulic properties. At the global scale, we found not only that the overall weighted mean effect size of the correlation between specific leaf area and wood density was significant and negative but also that the coordination between leaf and stem traits seemed to be shaped by climate and tends to become stronger under harsh climate conditions. Furthermore, although our results seem to suggest that their coordination is context‐dependent, alternative strategies could be observed under stressful conditions.